***Replication File Who Shot the Bullets? (Kreiman & Masullo 2020 LAPS)***

use Kreiman_Masullo_Replication_LAPS.dta

***Table 1. OLS Regression*** - 

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atparabacrim_cede departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

***Online Appendix***


***Table A1 - Descriptive Statistics***

sum ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atpara_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop lrain ln_altitud ln_cultivatedareaperone oil coberturabrutaeduc ln_ateln_cede ln_atbacrim_cede ln_govatt_cede_1 santosporc gini_terreno indrural2005 larea totalregalias_capita gems total_courts desplazadospop ln_exposure_total ln_exposure_total_1000pop cerac_strong cerac_persistent mountains2 log_discapital
 

***Table A2 - OLS Exposure to Total Violence***

regress ref_si ln_exposure_total_mean ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_exposure_total_1000pop_mean ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

***Table A3 - OLS Exposure to Total Violence (Robustness)***

regress ref_si cerac_strong cerac_persistent ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

***Table A4 - OLS Exposure to Paramilitaries/BACRIM***

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atpara_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atbacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*


***Table A6 - Political Preferences***

*Liberals 1958*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_lib_1958 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*Liberals 1966*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_lib_1966 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*Anapo 1966*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_anapo_1966 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*Liberals 1974*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_lib_1974 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*Anapo 1974*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_anapo_1974 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*UNO 1974*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_uno_1974 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*Liberals 1986*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_lib_1986 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*UP 1986*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_unionpatr_1986 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*PCC 1986*
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede perc_pcomunista_1986 ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

***Table A7 - Main Matching Model & Figures A4-A5 Dose Response Functions***
use Kreiman_Masullo_Replication_LAPS_Matching.dta

*FARC

xtile cut= farc, nq(5)

doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Paramilitaries + BACRIM
xtile cut2 = parabacrim, nq(5)

doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

***Table A8 – Matching Continuous Treatment FARC***


*Santos First Round
doseresponse santos1 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*ELN Violence
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic atelncede, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Socio-demographic and Natural Resources
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic lpop gems, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Geographic Conditions and State Capacity
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic area2 lnaltitud coberturabrutaeduc, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Paramilitary-BACRIM Violence
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic parabacrim, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Paramilitary-BACRIM Violence (Dummy)
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic parabacrimdummy, outcome(ref_si) t(farc) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)


***Table A9 – Matching Continuous Treatment Paramilitary/BACRIM***

*Santos First Round
doseresponse santos1 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*ELN Violence
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic atelncede, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Socio-demographic and Natural Resources
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic lpop gems, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*Geographic Conditions and State Capacity
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic area2 lnaltitud coberturabrutaeduc, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*FARC Violence
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic farc, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)

*FARC Violence (Dummy)
doseresponse santos2 indrural2005 cultivated oil gini regalias partic farcdummy, outcome(ref_si) t(parabacrim) gpscore(propscore_ep) predict(hat_treat) sigma(hat_sd) detail interaction(0) cutpoints(cut2) index(p50) nq_gps(2) dose_response(mydoseresponse)  filename(doseresponse) graph(doseresponse)





***Table A10 - Instrumental Variables Analysis***

use LAPS_Replication.dta

ivregress 2sls ref_si (ln_atfarc_cede = log_discapital) departamento_*, first vce(robust)

ivregress 2sls ref_si ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc (ln_atfarc_cede = log_discapital) departamento_*, first vce(robust) 


***Table A11 - Robustness Controls***

*Interaction Attacks Government with Attacks FARC

regress ref_si  ln_atparabacrim_cede c.ln_govatt_cede_1##c.ln_atfarc_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

*ELN

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc ln_ateln_cede departamento_*

*Santos_1
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc santosporc departamento_*

*GINI Terreno
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc gini_terreno departamento_*

*Area
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc larea departamento_*

*Natural Resources Royalties pc
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc totalregalias_capita departamento_*

*Gems
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc gems departamento_*



***Table A12 - Sensitivity Analyses***

regress ref_si ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud departamento_*

***Table A13 – 2018 Presidential Elections***

regress DUQUE_2_18 ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*

***Table A14 – 2010-2012 Attacks***

regress ref_si lnFARC lnPara ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*


***Figure A3 - Margins FARC & Paramilitary-BACRIM***

*FARC
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop indrural2005 cultivated100 oil ln_altitud coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*
margins, at(ln_atfarc_cede=( -3.135494 (0.5)4.103721)) atmeans
marginsplot,  recast(line) xlabel(-3.5 (1) 4.5) ylabel(45(1) 56)

*Paramil-BACRIM
regress ref_si ln_atfarc_cede ln_atparabacrim_cede ref_partic share_santos_2_100 incidence_multidim_pov_2005_100 lpop lrain ln_altitud cultivated100 oil coberturabrutaeduc departamento_*
margins, at(ln_atparabacrim_cede=(-3.135494(0.5)5.095874)) atmeans
marginsplot,  recast(line) xlabel(-3.5 (1) 5.0) ylabel(60(3) 35)

